Bankers hope for Trump victory

America’s banking industry is in turmoil as they push back against proposed capital rules. The response from banking executives and industry groups has been nothing short of forceful. The dispute has drawn heated discussions, threats of legal action, and a deluge of letters to banking agencies.

The process for creating new bank rules is intricate. It involves detailed discussions between industry members and regulators, and a back-and-forth process that often occurs behind closed doors. When proposals for Basel III implementation were published last July, the reaction was unprecedented. Bosses of large banks have vehemently expressed their displeasure, leading to a significant extension of the comment period.

Now that all complaints and letters have been filed, it’s evident that opposition to the proposed rules is extensive. A law firm found that out of 347 submissions, only nine supported the rules as proposed. The criticism came from a wide range of groups, from financial institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs to advocacy organizations like the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and environmentalists.

The rules in question are complex, and so are the complaints. However, they can be distilled into three key themes: the unnecessary increase in capital requirements, concerns about the impact on banks’ ability to function in capital markets, and the potential negative effect on lending to vital sectors like housing and environmental projects.

While bank bosses initially seemed resigned to accepting these rules, they now appear more confident that the rules will be amended. The regulatory process, usually intended to result in a consensus, is proving to be a source of division, with Fed governors split on the matter.

The proposed rules have put regulators in a challenging position. They can choose to press on undeterred and finalize the rules, an action that would likely lead to legal action. Alternatively, they could make substantial changes or start over, both of which would require another round of proposal and comment.

To complicate matters further, the agencies are running out of time. The deadlines for these rules could fall at a time when they would be subject to potential legislative upheaval. Bankers are eager to delay this process as much as possible, but it remains to be seen if their views will sway political decisions.

Amidst this turmoil, the banking industry’s political stance remains somewhat surprising. For more junior staff at major banks, donations to Democrats exceed those to Republicans by a more significant margin than in 2020. Nonetheless, for all the noise and fervor surrounding the proposed rules, there isn’t much indication that capital requirements have become a top priority for political donors in the industry.

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