It’s easy to get lost in the sea of information about public debt, but a recent Chinese translation of Barry Eichengreen’s “In Defense of Public Debt” is making waves. The book, which highlights the benefits of government borrowing, has come at an opportune time. China is currently facing disappointing growth and the threat of falling prices, leading many to believe that the fiscal constraints put in place by the Chinese government are partly responsible for the economic downturn.
But there’s good news. The Chinese government has taken a step to revive the economy by loosening the reins on spending. Revising the budget-deficit target and allowing provinces to issue “refinancing bonds” are among the measures being taken to jump-start the economy. Financial regulators have also urged banks to provide financing to property developers and have highlighted the need for key infrastructure projects.
However, according to economists, these steps may not be enough to fully reinvigorate the economy. There’s a fear that the government’s caution in providing stimulus may fall short of what’s needed. It’s no secret that China has been wary of public debt, and even staunch supporters are careful not to be too vocal about their views.
So why is the Chinese government hesitant to provide the necessary fiscal boost? It could be due to ideology or, as some would argue, the experiences of the past. Fifteen years ago, China embarked on a massive fiscal stimulus in response to the global financial crisis. While it did spur growth, it also left a legacy of issues, some of which are still haunting the economy.
The recent stimulus measures have raised concerns that they may not be substantial enough to bring about the desired impact. Many believe that the government’s fear of a repeat of the 2008 lending frenzy is holding it back from delivering the stimulus needed to propel the economy forward. However, experts warn that doing nothing is not an option, and a better stimulus plan is essential to address the challenges facing the economy.
The debates around public borrowing and its impact are complex, but one thing is clear: China’s economy needs a fiscal boost, and the government needs to navigate this delicate balance between the pros and cons of stimulus measures. The road ahead is challenging, but it’s essential to find the right balance between fiscal responsibility and providing the necessary support to ensure economic recovery.
In conclusion, the dilemma faced by China’s economy is both a cautionary tale and an opportunity to recalibrate the way forward. The lessons learned from the past are crucial in guiding the government’s decisions, and the path to recovery will require careful planning and thoughtful action. As the debate on public debt continues, it’s important to strike the right balance to ensure that the economy can thrive once again.
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