According to sources familiar with the intelligence, the US has received new intelligence on Russian military capabilities, specifically related to its efforts to deploy a nuclear anti-satellite system in space. This intelligence was recently briefed to Congress and key US allies, prompting some lawmakers to call for its declassification and public disclosure. Despite the concerning nature of the intelligence, senior members of Congress have emphasized that it does not pose an immediate threat to the US or its interests.
The nuclear anti-satellite system in question is still under development and has not yet been put into orbit, according to three US officials who are knowledgeable about the intelligence. It remains unclear how far the technology has progressed, and it has been clarified that the threat does not involve a weapon targeting humans.
The potential deployment of an anti-satellite weapon in Earth’s orbit is a cause for concern, particularly because of the significant danger it could pose to US nuclear command and control satellites, which are essential for maintaining control over the country’s nuclear arsenal. Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, has warned that even conventional weapons on an orbital anti-satellite system could be a substantial threat to the US.
ABC News was the first to report that the intelligence related to a Russian space-based nuclear capability, sparking a firestorm on Capitol Hill. Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, issued a statement regarding “information concerning a serious national security threat,” leading to a rush of lawmakers to view the intelligence in classified spaces. However, opinions regarding the urgency of the threat varied among those who were briefed.
An attempt to launch a nuclear-armed anti-satellite system into space would violate The Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which explicitly prohibits “any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction” in orbit. These developments come amidst a $60 billion aid package to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, which has stalled in the House.
It is important to note that Russia has been actively pursuing counterspace systems capable of neutralizing US military and commercial space systems. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has reported that Russian doctrine calls for the ability to target enemy satellites using various means, including temporary jamming and outright destruction.
As discussions surrounding the intelligence continue, it remains to be seen how the US, its allies, and the Biden administration will respond to this potential national security threat. All eyes will be on Congress and the administration as they navigate through the complexities of this situation.
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